Financial Outlook for Bajaj Finance Limited (2025-2029)

Bajaj Finance Limited is poised for strong and sustained growth over the 2025-2029 period, driven by robust profitability, rapid customer expansion, and strategic innovation.

Revenue and Profit Growth:

• Bajaj Finance reported a consolidated net profit of ₹4,546 crore in Q4 FY25, alongside revenues of ₹16,359 crore and net interest income of ₹9,807 crore, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 19%, 23.7%, and 22% respectively.

• The loan book increased by 34% to ₹114,684 crore, while assets under management (AUM) grew 26% for the full year to ₹4.16 lakh crore.

• Operating leverage improved, and the cost-to-income ratio decreased to 21.7%, with asset quality remaining strong (gross NPA at 0.96% and net NPA at 0.44%).

• Analysts project earnings per share (EPS) growth of 26% for FY26, with an annualized CAGR of 25% through FY27, indicating robust profitability momentum.

Customer Expansion and Market Penetration:

• Bajaj Finance’s customer base crossed 100 million in mid-2025, with company targets to reach 130–140 million customers by FY28 and up to 200 million by FY29.

• Expansion is focused on deepening penetration in high-growth segments like retail credit, MSME lending, gold loans, microfinance, and two-wheeler financing, supported by digital platforms and partnerships (e.g., with Bharti Airtel for a 370 million user reach).

• The "BFL 3.0" strategy emphasizes AI-powered fintech innovation, multi-cloud adoption, and green finance initiatives to foster scalable customer engagement and operational efficiency.

Strategic and Market Factors:

• The Reserve Bank of India's easing of risk weights on NBFC bank loans effective April 2025 enhances liquidity and capital efficiency for Bajaj Finance, improving borrowing costs and margins.

• Despite some marginal rise in unsecured loan stress, proactive provisioning and strong risk management keep asset quality stable.

• Bajaj Finance is also focusing on green finance and product diversification, aligning with future sustainability and market trends.

Valuation and Market Expectations:

• The stock price target for Bajaj Finance in 2025 is approximately ₹10,422, about 14.6% upside from current levels, with a potential to reach around ₹18,769 by 2030, more than doubling in value.

• Return on equity (ROE) stands strong at 19.2% (annualized), and the company trades at about 34 times trailing earnings and 7.4 times book value.

• The cost-to-income ratio improvement and operating leverage gains contribute to margin expansion potential as scale increases.

Summary:Bajaj Finance is well-positioned for robust growth in the medium term, leveraging strong financials, a rapidly expanding customer franchise, extensive digital adoption, and strategic initiatives including AI and green finance. The company’s strong asset quality, capital adequacy, and cost efficiency support sustainable profitability and market share gains. Analyst consensus and market trends suggest Bajaj Finance will remain a dominant, high-growth leader in the NBFC sector through 2029 and beyond.

If you need, I can also provide the financial outlook for Bajaj Auto or Britannia, or detailed segment-wise projections.