Reliance Industries shares up 25% in 2025; 4 reasons stock could gain another 18%!

nvshah0610
Jul 8
2 min read

The Shares of Reliance Industry Up by 25% key reasons are:-

1. Broader analyst base raising price targets

Goldman Sachs added RIL to its APAC Conviction List, citing four key catalysts: rebound in EBITDA, better refining margins, retail recovery, and a telecom tariff hike .
The same firm also sees RIL’s EBITDA growth recovering to ~16% in FY26, setting a target of ₹1,801 (≈18% upside from current levels) .
CLSA similarly anticipates a ~14% upside to ₹1,650, buoyed by improved performance in retail, Jio subscriber gains (2.6 M in April), and stronger oil-to-chem (O2C) margins .

🔋 2. New‑energy + AI ambitions at Jamnagar

Morgan Stanley projects up to $60 bn in potential market value from RIL’s strategy to integrate its New Energy unit with generative AI infrastructure, including powering a 1 GW data‑centre with NVIDIA chips .
This emerging segment adds a transformative growth dimension beyond oil‑to‑chem, retail, and telecom.

🛍️ 3. Structural strength in retail & telecom

Bernstein, Jefferies, and JPMorgan highlight robust cash flow from Jio and Reliance Retail, noting store rationalisation near completion, tariff hikes for telecom, and stable or moderating capex & debt levels .
Jefferies expects consumer-driven growth and scale economies in digital, retail and new energy to sustain free cash flow and equity value .

⚙️ 4. Improving operational fundamentals & earnings rebound

Retail EBITDA growth is expected in the high‑teens YoY starting Q1FY26, with telecom adding millions of subscribers .
Reuters notes RIL’s Q4 profit beat was driven by strong telecom & retail earnings, sparking mid-April upgrades in 13 of 32 analyst targets .
A broader earnings recovery across Indian corporates in FY26 supports an improving backdrop for RIL .

📊 Quantifying the upside

With price targets ranging from ₹1,568 to ₹1,801—and the current level around ₹1,525—the implied upside potential ranges from 10% to ~18%.
A consensus 12-month target average of ₹1,594 suggests ~4% more upside, with the top-end calls adding further room .

✅ Verdict

Strong fundamental momentum across retail, telecom, and new energy, plus bullish signals from leading global and domestic brokerages, make the case compelling for another 10–18% upside in RIL stock—especially if growth materializes and investors remain confident.